31 Mar 2011

Gold, Silver, Uranium and Ruination of the US Dollar

With gold and silver still consolidating, today King World News interviewed Rick Rule, Founder of Global Resource Investor now part of the $8 billion Sprott Asset Management.  Rick is known as one of the most street smart pros in the resource sector.  When asked about gold Rule responded, “Whether gold is $1,380 or $1,420 has absolutely no relevance to me, I think gold is part of an investment portfolio.  I think gold is part of a speculative portfolio as a consequence of its probable response to shocks to the financial system which I think are highly, highly likely.  I am a player in a trend and that trend is the ruination of the value of the US dollar.”

When asked about silver Rule stated, “What we have been seeing in silver was very, very accurately portrayed in the interview that you did with Eric Sprott.  What Eric was pointing out was that even though investment demand for gold has traditionally been higher, investment demand for silver is now outstripping the investment demand for gold on a dollar by dollar basis with much less available value to buy.  

So specifically there is a short-term supply/demand imbalance for silver.  With demand so tight and the price moving, ironically the price moving increases the demand, that is likely to exacerbate and there seems to be a substantial potential for continued near-term increases in the price of silver.”

When asked about the Japanese tragedy and its impact on the uranium market Rule remarked, “Well Eric I guess the investment proposition that we have in front of us is the fact that nuclear power is in the news and most of the news is negative which means that the uranium price has fallen and the price of uranium explorers and producers has fallen.

It’s my belief that in most likely outcomes with regards to Japan, use of uranium will not decline and hence the price of uranium and price of companies looking for or producing uranium will rise.  This seems to me to be an anomalous speculative opportunity.  In particular I think that your readers globally may want to look at the very high quality uranium explorers or producers and buy half of a position now with the view to increasing the position in 3 to 6 months depending on the outcome of events in Japan.

It is not impossible, in fact not completely unlikely that events in Japan will worsen and that public perception with regards to uranium will decline, meaning that the uranium stocks that you bought today would be available for less money.  It’s also not impossible, in fact not unlikely that conditions in Japan will continue to improve and that the outlook and the acceptance of uranium in public markets will get better and better.

What is very apparent to me is that almost without exception, outcomes in Japan will not impact long-term demand for uranium because uranium is too important a component in world-wide electrical supply.   

Japan is already 15% below their base load of energy production.  When the summer hits and air conditioner demand kicks in Japan will be 25% below base load production.  So even the country which is most impacted by the tragedy that has occurred is highly unlikely to be able to reduce its demand for nuclear power.  

What that means from my point of view is that the depression that we are seeing in uranium and uranium stocks is more likely than not temporary and I suspect that this is a good entry point for at least a 50% speculative investment.” 

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