Dan Norcini warned over the weekend on the KWN Weekly Metals Wrap that there was, “Potential for a top”, “Negative divergences”, “A great deal of distribution”, “Very dangerous market for people to trade”, “Undercapitalized speculators, they are going to learn they can be separated very quickly from their money.” Those were just a few of the red flag warnings for traders and investors from Dan Norcini over the weekend regarding the silver market that proved to be deadly accurate.
When asked what he is looking at right now in silver, Norcini replied, “I want to address the silver backwardation issue. Many investors and traders feel that silver should not be dropping in price because of the backwardation structure. They point to this fact as proof that silver is in short supply and demand is phenomenal.
That may be entirely true, I don’t know, but the fact is that when we are dealing with the Comex silver market we are dealing with a paper market. Keep in mind that hedge funds that trade the paper markets do not care about fundamentals. They are pure technicians who rely solely on their computer trading algorithms to make trading decisions. These algorithms are utterly indifferent to the realities in the physical market.
The bottom line is once these algorithms move into a sell mode, the hedge funds will unload until they’ve exhausted their selling, regardless of the physical market structure. Meaning the paper market does not care about the physical market.”
When asked about the action in the mining shares Norcini stated, “It’s evident that while the metals were moving strongly to the upside, the mining shares were lagging dramatically. In my opinion, this is the effect of the ratio spread trade that I have discussed on KWN many times in the past.
The ratio between the HUI and the gold price had gotten so far out of whack as a result of this spread trade that either the shares had to move higher to catch up to the metals or the metals had to move lower to close the gap between them and the shares. At some point I think the shares are going to catch up to the gold price. For this to be remedied you need to have the shares strongly outperform gold to the upside at some point.
Because they (gold shares) so severely underperformed against the metals, I think the shares will bottom first before the metals will. It looks to me Eric like we may have had the shares bottom today. We just need to see today’s low hold for a short period of time in order to see this confirmed. If this turns out to be the case, it most likely means the metals will bottom shortly thereafter.”
When asked what else he is watching in both silver and gold Norcini remarked, “It looks to me Eric like there is a congestion zone on the ratio chart in the 40 to 41 vicinity of the gold/silver ratio. That appears to be the most probable ratio target for this leg. If it were for some reason to push past that zone, it could run to the 46 level.
Gold looks like it may have possibly bottomed today just below the $1,510 level. Gold has been holding better than silver because the long silver/short gold trades are being unwound. This will tend to support gold at the expense of silver moving forward.”
To his credit Dan Norcini was waving many caution flags on the KWN Weekly Metals Wrap this weekend, and as it turns out he nailed it. For those of you who are on monthly accumulation programs in gold and silver, continue buying at the same time every month, do not try to get cute and time these markets. This is a long-term secular bull market and before it is over gold, silver and the mining shares will be in a mania that will be talked about for generations.
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